Let's Revisit USD/JPY & AUD/USD!
Posted by FreeWithForex on September 30, 2023
USD/JPY Fundamental Outlook
The Japanese yen declined against the US dollar, this is catalysed by the Bank of Japan maintaining its stance on ultra-loose monetary policy. They also upheld the 10-year bond yield cap of 1.0% and target around 0%.
At the just concluded two-day conference, traders predicted the Japanese central bank would uphold its policy grounds. Policymakers are also looking forward to more proof to show that price pressures have been reduced.
However, traders are more focused on Kazuo Ueda's briefing, the Governor. Traders are searching for clues for any future policy change. In a recent interview, Kazuo stated that before the end of this year, the central bank will have sufficient data and information concerning prices that will enable them to end negative assumptions about the early exit from the present monetary policy.
With the central bank still unable to hit its inflation target, the BOJ is bound to fall back to tightening monetary policy. The data published on Friday indicates a 3.1% increase in inflation in the Japanese economy in August. This figure is higher than BOJ's target by 1.1%, and also higher than the predicted 3.0%. Traders predict the end of negative interest rates policy by 2024.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
The change in interest rate policy between JPY and its pairs has plunged the USD/JPY to hit a high of 152.00. This newly recorded high is a three-decade high that was hit in 2022. However, at this point, an intervention might reduce the decline of JPY. However, it is paramount for the BOJ to revisit its ultra-loose monetary policy, or its peers can loosen their stance on rate hikes.
On technical charts, USD/JPY struggles to stay afloat. The pair is still trading above important support levels. For instance, using the 240-minute charts, since July, USD/JPY has been trading over the 200-period MA. If the price breaks below the MA, overlapping the 146.00 price mark, it will indicate a potential price reversal. After hitting the 152.00 price market, the next price level to look out for is 160.35, which is the high recorded in 1990.
AUD/USD Analysis
The Australian dollar has been in a decline since the publication of the FOMC and Westpac lending index report. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate levels, however, it made a hawkish statement insinuating the support of high interest rates for a long period.
On Monday, the AUD/USD pair lost to the greenback because of the stronger US Dollar. This was catalysed by the higher Treasury yield and guarded market sentiment. The pair declined to 0.6495 and then pulled back to 0.6425. The pair continued to trade sideways while indicating a downward trend.
On Tuesday, the pair declined again and it's gradually on its way to hit the lowest daily close of 0.6355 which was last recorded on the 8th of September. This is due to the various risk phobias, like the China issue, and the US Dollar maintaining its strong stance holds the pair under strain.
The negative pressure is also driven by the ongoing issues surrounding the Chinese real estate sector. This is coming after Evergrande Group failed to pay its onshore bonds fees.
On Monday, the AUD/USD pair lost to the greenback because of the stronger US Dollar. This was catalysed by the higher Treasury yield and guarded market sentiment. The pair declined to 0.6495 and then pulled back to 0.6425. The pair continued to trade sideways while indicating a downward trend.
The Australian CPI data report was released today. The Consumer Price Index met with analysts' predictions of 5.2%. However, surprisingly, prices didn't shoot up, due to lack of a bullish catalyst. This recent event also raised the issue of a well-structured rate pause. Traders are looking forward to next week to know the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) about rate hikes. Traders are still murmuring that additional rate hikes will be needed next year. A lack of gain will lead to forget rate hikes next year.
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