Let's take a look at EUR/USD & GBP/USD!
Posted by FreeWithForex on October 12, 2023
The forex market is currently showing signs of high volatility, as traders scramble towards the USD for haven. However, even with the growing crisis in the Middle East, the market is still trading steadily. In todays article we will cover the EUR/USD analysis and the GBP/USD analysis.
- The Fedwatch stance on future rate hikes.
- EUR/USD analysis
- EUR gradually gains stronghold
- GBP rallies
- Risk event ahead
The Fedwatch Stance On Future Rate Hikes
Despite traders picking the USD as a safe haven, the greenback is presently trading bearish.
The recent data released from FedWatch indicates a decrease in the probability of an additional US rate hike. This is coming after one week of indicating a future rate hike before the end of 2023. The dovish stance from the Fed analysis is propelled by the currency increase in longer-term US Treasury Yields. This week, Philip Jefferson, a Fed bureaucrat stated that the Central Bank should move carefully when contemplating additional rate hikes.
On Monday, Lorie Logan, the Dallas Fed president, gave a long speech stating that there will be no further increase in interest rates if long-term interest rates remain high due to higher-term premiums.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis
The Euro is trading bullish and clenching onto its recent gains. The recent ongoing crisis in the Middle East is yet to reflect on the market, and Tuesday showed a busy start in the currency market.
The US Dollar is trading down and Treasury yields are declining overnight after the Fed Speech.
Spot gold is still trading above US dollar 1,860.
Philip Jefferson (Federal Reserve Vice Chairman), and Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President) stated that the long-term treasury yields have helped in tightening interest rates.
After the holiday on Monday, the Physical Treasury markets re-opened today.
4.88% on Friday, the 10-year note is currently at 4.65%.
EUR/USD is currently trading close to 1.0560, while GBP is trading above and close to 1.2200.
Five Fed speakers namely, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Roberto Perli, Neil Kashkari, and Raphael Bostic will be speaking today, and traders are looking forward to their comments and input. Additionally, Francois Villeroy from ECB will also make his comments today.
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is still trading bearish, notwithstanding the current price rally. Nearby resistance seems to be at its peak, the next resistance level to be at point 1.0617, moving further ahead of another initial high at 1.0617. A further increase will see resistance at 1.0830.
On the bearish end, support is marked at the recently marked lows of 1.0480 and 1.0440.
The British Pound seems to be picking up gradually against the USD and Euro. Judging from the last three trading sessions which has generated a profit of 0.9%. This three-day gaining trading session is its best 3-day performance since July. From the daily chart it's seen that GBP/USD has recently been talking higher, a push higher will signal a bullish trend.
GBP/USD had a bullish trend on Tuesday. The pair hit its highest price mark in two weeks going above 1.2250. This is coming after covering around 1.2200 during the Asian trading session. The positive rally has impeded the increase in demand for USD thus making GBP really stronger.
Meanwhile, the recent comment from the Fed Bureaucrats seems to add to the dwindling of the USD. On Monday, the Fed vice president stated that the recent increase in bond yields will be taken into consideration when analysing the monetary policy in the future. Dallas also said that if the long term rate remains high, the need to increase interest rates will be low, this is to curb higher term premiums.
On Wednesday, GBP/USD opened near 1.2290, with its day low being 1.2268, the US session ushered in with 1.2337, however mid trade the pair hit the 1.2300, testing the new resistance level.
Future Risk Events
US Producer Price Index (PPI) data was published and it exceeded expectations hitting a 2.7%rather than the predicted 2.3%.Traders are looking forward to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated to be published on Thursday. The CPI is expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.6%. GBP traders should look out for the UK Gross Domestic Product and production data.
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